A quick Q1-23 Revenue estimation Sales Guidance, Q1-23 = 2,300 – 2,500 tonnes
Let’s assume the following:
Q1-23 Sales Volume = 2,400T = 5.3M lbs
Q1-23 avg Revenue per pound = US$9.6
Q1-23 Total Revenue = US$51M
RBC Andrew Wong’s Q1-23 EPS estimate = ($0.12) (in CAD or US$???)
If Andrew’s EPS estimate = (C$0.12) then his Net Loss estimate = (C$0.12)/share x 64,446,000 shares = (C$7.7M) = ~(US$5.7M). For that to happen our Total Costs estimate (in the above scenario) must = US$56.7M representing 111% of Total Revenue.
If Andrew’s EPS estimate = (US$0.12) then his Net Loss estimate = (US$7.7M). For that to happen our Total Costs estimate (in the above scenario) must = US$58.7M representing 117% of Total Revenue.
Either 11% or 15% cost overrun, both would be unimaginable in my books. But it’s just me.