RE:ARX well Positioned to Lead in ESG - a Premier Gas ProducerI think we all appreciate the effort to find the good here and ARX ESG is a great selling feature.
The math is a little dubious (trading at a 50% discount to TOU? closer to 300%?)
That being said is this how the stock rerates? We are seeing a 33% drop in commodity prices.
ARX is holding at about $15 range fairly well.
What happens when those commodty prices go back up?
After all summer demand is just around the corner.
The EU and China are going to compete for LNG. China is going to import more oil.
GLTA ARX BULLS
MyHoneyPot wrote: BC, truely does fit into the Global World picture for LNG, when you have liquification happening in a northern climate like Kitimat BC, and you have gas production feeding it primarily from BC, where all the gas plants can be electrified using Hydro, where in the world is their lower GHG emissions for Natural Gas?
So when companies want responsibly produced gas, who will they be talking to none other than ARX. A premium is paid for feedstock for LNG plants, why not get the lowest GHG gas to fill the plant so that we can provide aid to Europe in efforts for a Green Transition.
Do you think for one moment that LNG from Qatar, or the burnt lanscape of the Perminan basin can compete with clean gas/LNG from NE BC.
ARC is miles ahead of the competation in this area, and you really will have a hard time convincing a mid streamer to do it for you, unless your willing to incurr a big cost with respect to processing.
ARC has done a great job in positioning themselves as a responsible energy provider, supporting the Green Transition with the cleanest burning natural gas, in a market that pinches their nose when they are forced to buy your product, because there is no other choice.
ARC should trade at a premium to its piers, without any Topaz royalities on this production like TOU, with an efficient and 100% owned electrified infastructure, and the largest Canadian producer of Condensate a premium product used for moving heavy oil.
Every BOE of ARX's production is worth 60% more on a net back basis than TOU.
359,730 *1.6 = TOU boe equalivent = 575,568 (ARX # boe based on equalivent TOU netback per boe)
In the fourth quarter of 2022 TOU produced 511,590
If gas did not spike in December, TOU would not have had the windfall CF in Q4, in Q1 this year ARX will trounch TOU in terms of free cash flow.
ARX is currently trading at a 50% discount to the TOU price yet will will generate more FCF.
IMHO