RE:Gold oil ratio….Frank, I was watching Bloomberg Surveillance this morning talking about all of the junior debt holders of Credit Suisse got fleeced. The Saudis apparently held a lot of junior bonds.
Definition of junior debt: "Junior debt refers to bonds or other forms of debt issued with a lower priority for repayment than other, more senior debt claims in the case of default. Because of this, junior debt tends to be riskier for investors, and thus carries higher interest rates than more senior debt from the same issuer."
Anyway, so the Saudis want to recoup their losses. The thinking is that they'll want to increase the oil price. So maybe keep an eye on OPEC+ because the market should begin to price that in if indeed Saudi cuts production. Plus we have summer driving season coming up. Your estimates are sound in my opinion.