RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:The Atlas Salt Game PlanOk, I'll bite.
I've have said here, any other places, that the notion of $70-$80 (or $40-$50, etc) has always been a stretch. However, not because I can't represent those values to anyone in a properly executed NPV, but becuse if this gets bought out, no acquirer is going to pay values for an asset as if this was an operating company with years of historical, executed cash flows.
However, explain to me why, say, $10 is not in the realm of possibility? I certainly don't put $10 in the same bucket as $25, $40, $50, $80, etc. For the record, after the January NR for the PEA, I did a full after-tax NPV, discounted it at various rates based on the increasing risk a vendor would take on, and discounted certain NPVs by factors from other mining industries (i.e., someone noted that in the gold mining realm NPV5s are multipled by 20% to arrive at an asset purchase price range). When I do the calcs on a couple fronts I can easily get a $10-$12 range and this represents a severly discounted value from pro-forma NPV calculations.
I'm being sincere here. Explain to me the calculated rationale as to why $10, or $8, is not even possible. Also, I agree there have been a few that believe the $70-$80 price in a bidding war. However, those a few and far between and are the outliers. I'm pretty sure Management don't buy into the elevated valuation hype.