RE:RE:US Oil Report
Roscoe747 wrote: Roscoe747 wrote: Crude up 1.6 mmb, gasoline down, diesel down (total products -2.1 mmb) refinery utilisation stuck at 88%. No problem now as this report plays into the banking/inflation/interest rates narrative but refinery utilisation is behind the summer demand curve.
There is still time to stockpile product but perhaps the delayed turnaround maintenance from extended refinery runs due to high margins is more extensive than anticipated. Supply chain delays and skills shortages endemic in the industry may also be causing grief.
All in all, any precipitous demand spikes will cause a product supply tightening that will impact prices. Time is on the side of the bulls.
March 22/23
Crude up 1.1 mmbbl, gas, diesel down (total products -10.4 mmbbl), refinery utilisation up a tad to 88.6%
The trend is still down with jet fuel use up 6%11111111
Goldman Sachs today suggests that the financial crisis in banking has exacerbated the flight of capital from commodities especially energy. A flight that will take months to change, leaving a deficit that will induce a commodities super cycle because the deficit is supply driven, not demand driven.
The fantastical drive to Net 0 in 2050 means that as much copper is required in the next 3 decades as has been mined to date in the history of civilisation. All the easy deposits have been developed and the next will be very capital intensive. The reliance on renewables and accompanying disdain for hydrocarbons will only create less supply and higher prices.
We are on the cusp of a commodities super cycle due to the Law of Unintended Consequences unleashing its full effects on the fools in power who believe they can repeal economic and physical realities to suit a political reality.
Astute investors can profit from this dichotomy.