Product pricing question Very few if any pharma discuss product sale pricing.
You can pull up financials on pharmas with multiple drug sales. They will go as far as $$$/ drug name.
However price/ dosage is kept close to the vest for competitive reasons.
Again.....we are not talking about widgets. " drugs/ medications", as we are seeing take decades of research to get marketing approval.
The development costs are gargantuan & risky.
Once approved, then there are marketing costs. The end use practitioners need to be aware & upto date on potential uses.
That is one of the many reasons of the publications, paid advertising etc.
The various analysts have been using $1bilion- $5 billion/ year in potential sales. That being after a first year ramp up.
Sales are not profits. One reason pharm does not discuss dosage pricing? The margins are huge.
Most drugs cost pennies/ dose to manufacture. In some cases fractions of a cent.
Pela being a virus, not requiring special handling probably produced $1/ does.
A quick look found that the recent COVID vaccines were being sold at various margins.
Being as little as 6x to as high as 35x production costs/ dose.
Drug companies need to make as much profit as quickly as possible to recoup & continue the development costs.
Before patents run out & generic manufacturing takes over.
Even at generic pricing, the margins are still huge.
All said, I leave the micro- analysis to the professional business analysts. They DO have access to more detailed data.
They are predicting a company value based on " present valuations of future income" = $500million to $1billion.
based on only one use. That being MBc.
Add in Pancreatic, Car- t, ....the numbers escalate.
Now, before I get jumped on " Onc is worth billions"...
The existing anakysts numbers SP $6 average to $15 higher ( usd) , are all using very very conservative approaches & assumptions.
RBC for example has a $6 rating , with an $18ps upside at partership and/ or further Pela trial developments.
Rational? They are in the $6ps number using only a 20% likelihood of success within the targeted dates in their pre port.
So, assuming things materialize, the likelihood becomes 100%. Their $6 target becomes $30.
That would be about $2billion market cap.
again, all said based only on MBc. The other uses of Pela, obviously add on to that.
That is why BTW you see some junior biotechs go from low $1-$2/ ps , very quickly to $20, $30, $90ps.
At this stage there are still risks. The Bracelet, aware-1 & even A.N. Run- in trials have answered many questions. Hence de- risking.
Still waiting for additional survival numbers out if Bracelet. We have been told , early June.
strong, positive results will give the analysts new fodder to analyze.
BTW in a round about way, the Pharma colborators. Pfizer, Roche,Incyte, Merck all use similar valuations of " what could we pay for this company".
Right now? It's at the whim on the stock market.
im sure a few have noticed, the " markets" in general are not exactly sound.
happy spring all