RE:Remember back to Samira's last forecast ...Just a correction: the initial revenue guidance for 2022 was $260-$265M if I'm not mistaken?
Midpoint was $262.5M compared to the $293.5M that we ended up with. 2022 included the $6M settlement. There may be all kinds of one-time events in the future as well, but let's say we take that out of the equation, and we get $287.5M for 2022. I remember Samira pointed out in the Q4/21 earnings call that this is a level of revenue that they know they're going to hit. I'd assume the same principle applies for 2023.
What jumps out immediately though is we've been provided with a much wider range for 2023 ($20M vs. $5M in 2022). Which perhaps tells us that it's difficult for them to gauge the impact of how much these new entrants will impact branded generics. I would expect them to err to the side of caution, though. But I would also assume there's definitely uncertainty for this year. My mindset is I don't expect anything over the guidance, but I do acknowledge that they're likely to be very careful with the numbers and also that there's a realistic chance of acquiring/in-licensing something that has an immediate impact on revenue.
The pipeline will deliver growth for 2024 and 2025. The innovative products in the current pipeline will start having an impact then (continuing growth in that segment), the branded generics pipeline has several launches for those years (turning back to growth in that segment), and I assume we'll acquire and/or in-license new products that will impact revenue by then.
We still have lots of products in a growth phase and I expect the pipeline to grow this year, setting up future growth. This quote is from the recently published Annual Information Form:
"Knight and GBT are either launching or in the early stages of launching several products, including Nerlynx®, Trelstar®, Ibsrela®, Cresemba®, Halaven®, Lenvima®, Karfib®, Akynzeo®, Palbocil® and Rembre®."
Here's to hoping they find some good deals in the market. :)
2.6M shares left in the NCIB, by the way. Are they going to complete it?