A “dramatic transition” from La Niña to El Niño ... What it means for copper prices.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California, Los Angeles, said there is already a “dramatic transition” from La Nia to El Nio happening in the tropical Pacific.
“Right now, the atmosphere and the ocean are both in sync and screaming ‘El Nio rapid development’ over the next few months,” he said.
It’s unclear how strong the coming El Nio will be – some models predict it could reach super-strength, others suggest it will be more moderate. But what is clear is that, layered on top of human-caused global heating, the signs point to El Nio ushering in severe and unprecedented impacts for many parts of the world.
In other parts of the world, El Nio could amplify droughts, fierce heatwaves and dangerous wildfires. South Africa and India are at risk of drought and extreme heat, as are nations near the West Pacific including Indonesia, Australia and Pacific island nations such as Vanuatu and Fiji.
One of the first fingerprints of El Nio, according to Gottschalck, will be evident in the changes in tropical cyclone activity. Unlike La Nia, El Nio tends to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, but creates the opposite effect in the Pacific, where warm waters can fuel more intense typhoons.
(Threat to DRC, Zambia, etc)
“Tropical cyclones can often form further west in the basin and remain stronger longer and so potential impacts to Hawaii are increased,” Gottschalck said. This means “more chances of landfall and remotely driven impacts, such as stronger and longer duration seas, heavy rainfall, and more.”, Swain said models show “very warm waters” off the coast of Peru that are already bringing in unusually heavy precipitation and flooding in the deserts. “That is a classic precursor to a significant El Nio event.”
As El Nio forms and strengthens later this year, Peru could be at even greater risk of more flooding. The government is already set to invest more than $1 billion on climate and weather measures to prevent the worst consequences.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/01/world/el-nino-forecast-weather-climate-impacts/index.html
This may be the most important investment news of 2024 as major copper producing regions will be impacted.
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