RE:RE:Time to commiserate?I have been thinking about this and feel the market is pricing this fairly based on current financials, declining top and bottomline, uncertain near term outlook.
IMO Papua LNG final investment decision will be a turning point for this company because that would mean consistent utilization of rigs guaranteed for atleast 6-7 years or more. Now the LNG prices are down and projects of this scale ($10 bil dollars) have been delayed in the past in developing economies.
They did say that one of their goals for the year is to review their optimal capital structure and dividend policy. I think in absence of any other rig deployment they should atleast increase the dividend with the interest money (4.5-5%). I think they will either be bought out or will make an acquisition in PNG to vertically integrate. If they would have wanted to declare a special div, they would have already done that. Again, the wait is for Papua FID after which they can pull the trigger.
Quarterly results don't really matter till this project gets FID and expect the sp to remain range bound between $1.2 to $1.4. Nothing really to see here before November/December. However, downside is protected with this war chest, $130 mil in Canadian tax losses, equipment, sustainable div etc