RE:OilsGood points my friend..
Can't see Biden backing off on the rhetoric to discourage production especially in TX and North Dakota since they are primarily Republican and he still has to pander to the radical left wing of his Party.
Agree that the uptick in oil prices just adds fuel to inflation and will probably force Powell to keep raising rates. I had predicted a long time ago that the terminal rate would be 5.5-6% but if energy prices go up anymore than that number may well increase and recession here we come.
Your last statement is key. With the vast majority of people in the US living paycheck to paycheck and 40-45% of the people not making enough to pay any income tax, (I pay US income tax...talk about being a loser...lol) inflation and higher interest rates are going to have a big effect.
The other issue that concerns me in the US is that people are moving money out of banks and buying money market funds. MM funds are NOT insured under the FDIC and this is not a good trend...reminds me of one the things that helped cause the financial crisis in 2008...time will tell as they say...