RE:EIA Annual Energy Outlook: BullishFor starters, nobody is predicting the end of oil use in a couple of years. In fact, nobody is predicting the end of oil period.
As far as the EIA goes, their track record at predicting trends has been worse than awful.
The only thing that has saved the EIA from total embarrassment is the fact that every calendar change allows them to reset their predictions. Somehow, the media takes each new prediction as gospel without holding the EIA accountable for their terrible track record as a predictive tool.
I have to do some digging to confirm, but i believe that the all-knowing EIA predicted in 2014 that world wide EV sales would be about 50,000 vehicles per year in 2020. They revamp their numbers year after year but the magnitude of their errors in judgement continues to be laughable.
The EIA is a reporting mechanism. They keep accurate accounts of current inventories and both imports and exports.
The EIA could be used as the absolute poster child for "staying in your lane".
As I have mentioned many times, I don't know anything about oil, but I can read. The following events appear to a oil-ignorant person like myself that the demand for oil is not as strong as the EIA would like us to think:
* OPEC just slashed production by 1.5 million bpd on top of Russia's cut of 0.5 million bpd
* China, the biggest market in the world is racing towards renewables despite the fact that oil deniers point out how coal usage in China is up (which is true but is only temporary)
* Europe is racing towards renewables to make sure that OPEC+ will never again be able to hold them by the throat
* The USA is racing towards renewables due initially to political will but is now morphing into a economic decision as costs for EV's and renewables plummet.
People now question the motives and political agendas of governments and rightfully so.
What people don't question, is what affects them personally.
EV's are already cheaper to own over the life of the vehicle than ICE vehices. When you add in the rebates, the economic choice is impossilbe to ignore for anyone that is paying attention. Elon has laid out a clear and easy to understand pathway to how the price of EV's is going to drop by 50% in the next 5 years. No tricks, no false "Mary Barra" promises. Compete or die.
Tony Seba has laid out a similar (clear and easy to understand) pathway for how the technology for solar/battery storage is already in place to make hydrocarbon energy obsolete.
I keep reading here how the developing world is going keep increasing the demand for oil.
IMO, the most compelling arguement against oil is that 80% of the world's population (primarily the under developed nations) live in a climate that is highly compatible with solar energy.
Combining the climate conditions of under developed countries with PROVEN technology in both solar capture and battery storage that is much cheaper to develop and heeps cheaper than operating a hydrocarbon infrastructure leads to an inevitable conclusion.
You guys have worn me out. You win.
Well, you don't win but it is clear to me that you would rather believe the nonsensical guidance of organizations like the EIA, or interpret oil production cuts as a sign of increasing demand, or believe that China adding coal production to meet temporary demand is actually meaningful going forward. Therefore, my well intentioned efforts to open eyes are pointless.
I sincerely thank the efforts of posters here to educate me about oil over the past couple of years.