RE:RE:Where is the world going?Good point.
Here are a few things I have learned over the years, especially in regard to smaller companies about the difficulty in picking winners.
1...for larger companies when they are their own customers that reduces the risk. So in the example of WM they will be using their own RNG to power their fleet of trucks.
2....for smaller companies in most cases it is all about management and their past track record and also their honesty. To assess honesty I would look at their PRs and if they seem to be overly pumping something then I got suspicious. The other thing to do is to simply call the CEO and have a chat with him or her. You would be surprised how many CEOs from smaller companies will actually answer their phones since they don't have an IR department. I would call and through that conversation I would be able to assess their integrity and also get permission to periodically call them to check in. While they won't be able to give you inside information, you may be able to get a "wink and a nod".
Here are some real life examples of a "wink and nod" from my past and anyone can get into a position to do the same...
A....I called the CEO of US based companiy to understand where the technology was going (had read about it in a story in the magazine Popular Science) and the potential market. In the course of the discussion, I asked if I could talk to his chief scientist and he said sure - here is his number. I called the scientist. Most scientists I have talked to over the years have two characteriztics - honesty and they don't know securities law. In conversation with the scientist, the first thing he said to was that he had the technology working in his office as we speak. After the call, I bought the stock and about a month later the SP was a double (I got a head start).
B...Another time I had a great relationship with the CEO and CFO of a small company. The company had a drug awaiting FDA approval. One day I called the CFO to ask about how the FDA process was going (it was near the time they would usually get a decision letter from the FDA). When he answered the phone he was quite short with me and sounded stressed. He said he would be very busy that day but I could call him back the next day. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out that something bad happened with the FDA approval. I got off the phone, sold my shares at around 12 bucks a share. After the market closed, the company announced that the FDA wanted them to redo their clinical trials. After a delayed opening, the the shares of the company opened at 1.75 a share!! Luck in terms of timing? You bet!! But I would never have been able to save my skin on that one without nuturing a realtionship with the senior people.
C...another time for a different company I got a call from a Board member that I knew and he said "I can't give you details but next week will be seminal week for the company". I already owned about 40K shares and loaded up some more. A few days later the SP doubled and I cashed in.
All that to say is yes it is hard to pick the winners as you suggest but there are ways to reduce that risk and somethimes they can really pay off.