PonyBoyOutsider wrote: GoNat, I was of the same camp of Upinmuskoka, originally was holding for an exit of around $8.75. For me and my family, that put me where I needed to be to be situated for retirement. (I still am holding 300,000 shares with an average cost of $.40 from fall of 2020)
That was back last year when the SP was climbing up in the 6.50-6.99 range.
The way I see it, something is going to trigger a next leg up, another run for Canadian O & G names. I do agree there is too much noise on carbon reduction & Green revolution and ESG nonsense that we likely won't see valuations that previous decades gave CO's like Crew, but, I don't think we're finished yet with appreciation of SP either.
I believe there is a slow quiet accumulation of Canadian O & G names that hold potential to run up (higher torque potential. Ie. CR/Kelt/ Baytex/Birchcliff/Pinecliff etc.) (not so much the CNRL or the TOU's of the world....)when enough stock has been accumulated, then they will let it run. (I also feel like it's being forced lower regularly by trading patterns/created volatility. But, this is just me speculating.....
As we move towards Canada LNG completion, I think there is going to be a real strong upwards movement on Montney players that will be benefiting from the takeaway to the west coast. This is the run I'm after, the fundamentals on this will be just too great to ignore, players like Crew with large land packages do likely stand to be taken out, but, it won't be Painted Pony Style, not with leverages and balance sheets sitting where they are. If it happens on the sooner side, that'd be fine by me, because I'm quite confident Dales on going to be giving the CO away!
anyways, we are every day moving closer to the next leg up and, I'm still hoping we break through that $6.99 52 week high but, I am quite concerned about the 4 year plan negatively affecting Balance sheet & running right back into a bunch of debt, especially since the last 6 months or more has shown just how volatile the NG pricing is. In that case, totally putting all my trust that Dale knows what he's doing.
probably foolish for not selling at 10 bagger status, but, I'm still stuck on the Canada LNG impact and remaining bullish, regardless the naysayers and negative sentiment constantly being portrayed in the fixed media.
still holding for $8.50 + and maybe more if it feels right.....
PonyBoy Outsider