RE:RE:Russian Crude Oil Exports Plunge
Experienced wrote: All of this has me scratching my head.
This reduction in Russian oil exports combined with the recent OPEC announcement of a cut of a million barrels a day has resulted in the Brent price moving up to close of what the Saudis need for the full price of their oil taking into account their social costs. It has not caused a spike in oil prices to the point where the Saudis are getting economic rent from oil production.
At the same time that all this is going on, the Russian Rouble has climbed 60% relative to the US dollar since the end of last July. If things were so bad for russian oil, then a priori one would expect to see the Rouble fall, not rise in value, especially with the cost of the war in Ukraine. During this same time period, the SP of SU, while going up and down is essentially flat compared to the end of last July.
Really don't have a clue what is going on but for sure there is more to this story than "worrying" about Russian oil production.
Traders don't believe the cuts till there's proof. Once there's proof of the reduction I think you will see more price movements