RE:Things are moving in PeruMore than two months after my previous post, I think things are getting much clearer in Peru. Soon in February it became evident that the protests (specially the more violent ones) where not as spontaneous as they wanted us to believe, and the more authentic and spontaneous protests weren't strong enough to move the needle of Peru politics. Also, under Boluarte's tenure the peruvian government has moved slightly towards authoritarianism, rapidly repressing demonstrations to make sure they didn't grow to destabilizing levels.
So most of Peru has been calm since March, with the only exception being Puno. There the aymaras (who live in in the south of Puno) have kept their rebelious behavior, clashing with the Police and even the Army from time to time. The quechua population (who live in the north of Puno) are not happy with Boluarte's "victory", but have mostly come back to life as usual, going back to work and even letting the mining companies in their land (including Minsur and Macusani Yellowcake) to continue with their operations.
Taking advantage of the "new normal", congressmen have archived all the proposals for early general elections, so they and the the President will stay until 2026. Although umpopular in the streets, Dina Boluarte still has the support of the right wing forces in Congress, which would be enough to avert any attemp of impeachment from the leftist oppositors, like the one they tried
recently. And the recent
criminal case being built against Boluarte around the funding of her campaign makes said right-wing even more crucial for her "survival" as President. An eventual breakdown of that relationship would not only mean the end of her Presidency, but very probably the beginning of a judicial process who could end with her imprisonment.
So there are good reasons for Dina Boluarte to keep the right-wing "orientation" of her government, and the recent decisions of her government are headed in that direction. In fact, listening to mining executives recently it's obvious this is shaping up to be a very pro-minig and pro-FDI government, probably the most mininig friendly government since 2010. The law has been imposed in the "Mining Corridor" for the first time in years, and the Ministry of Mines
has announced yesterday coordinated efforts to reduce the duration of mining paperwork (for exploration or exploitation permits) from the current 2 to 3 years to just 6 months, the same time it take in other jurisdictions like Chile or Argentina.
But the more pro-mining the government gets, the more suspicious the rebelious people of Puno gets, which is certinly a risk with every project in that region.Recently, on March 28, a group of 3,000 community leaders (mainly aymaras I believe) from different provinces of Puno
"agreed" to forbid the exploitation of lithium from Puno unless it is "industrilized" inside Puno and part of the profits are invested directly in the 13 provinces and 110 districts of that region. Shortly after local manager Ulises Solis
responded on national media:
"Because they have agreed to something, we don't have to respect it. If so we better let them rule Peru. (…) If they agree that the benefit is for the 110 districts, there must be a law (that specifies it) (...) We are going to respect what the law mandates, the Constitution, that is, the General Mining Law. As long as it is not modified, we will have to stick to what the legal regulations say"
Over Peru's history, Puno has lived between two "ruling systems": "the Law" imposed from Lima and their own ancient non-written rules which have governed them for centuries. With the raise of democracy in th twentieth century they gradually embraced "the Law" from Lima (along with the economic resources it brought), but when then perceive more authoritarianism from Lima then they naturally move closer to their own ancient rules and organization, which explains the rebelious attitude that still prevails in most of Puno.
Does that mean problems for $LI's projects? Short term I don't think so. Boluarte's government will impose the Law at any cost, using the force if needed. In fact, yesterday and probably as a response to the comuneros' "decision", the Minister of Mines
announced the imminent expedition of Macusani Yellowcake's pending drilling permit for Falchani. If, as it seems it will be, Dina Boluarte stays in office until 2026, I believe we will see progress in the uranium front too.