Q1-23 Revenue estimation (typo correction) Q1-23 Sales Guidance = 2,300T - 2,400T, Mid Point = 2,400T = ~5.3M lbs
Let’s assume the following:
Q1-23 Sales Volume = 2,400T = 5.3M lbs
Q1-23 avg Revenue per pound = US$10.0
Q1-23 Revenue = US$10.0 x 5,300,000 lbs = ~US$53.0M
So can we make a profit out of a revenue of US$53.0M? Imho, the answer = “Very Likely” unless the costs are unexpectedly out of control again.
Note:
Q4-22 CC
Heiko Ihle
Thanks, very much. In 2022, the company's net loss included about $15 million of nonrecurring stuff. Q4 was $6.3 million of that. We're 2 weeks away from the end of Q1. I mean, given the fairly large and consistent numbers. Are there any nonrecurring cash expenses that we should expect to see in Q1?
Ernest Cleave
Well, Heiko, at every reporting period, end of period, we would do NRV analysis on inventories, et cetera. But there's nothing that we were anticipating at this stage. So that's certainly something that we should plan for.
The analyst average EPS estimate for Q1-23 = a loss of -C$0.08. Can we beat the analyst expectation this time around? Again, I say “Very Likely”.
It should be noted that these are the same analysts who also come to an average Price Target of C$13.90.
So unless there is some kind of a problem associated with the negotiation of the LCE / Ansaldo Green Tech deal (MOU was extended to March 31 2023) I see no reason for the big drop in sp today.
Other coming catalysts:
May 2023: Q1-23 Results
May 2023: Completion of the Ilmenite plant
Jun 2023: Commissioning of VRFB 1st Sale
My 2 cts
DYODD