My estimate of Mumbala closing amount.I did an estimate of acrued cash flow from sept to end March. I used Monthly aver brent pricing, fields production from government releases, production costs as stated by Valeura, and Royalties and SRB for Thai regimes. I get the following netbacks in USD, which is in line with Valeura statements.
Revenues:
| | | Production | | Discount to Brent |
| Year | Month | Jasmine | Nong Yao | Manora | Brent | Jasmine | Nong Yao | Manora |
| | | Field | Net | Field | Net | Field | Net | | -$2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| | | | | | | | | | Revenues |
| 2022 | Sept | 10732 | 10732 | 9440 | 8496 | 4372 | 3060.4 | 90.23 | $28,406,531 | $22,997,822 | $8,284,197 |
| | Oct | 10145 | 10145 | 8966 | 8069.4 | 4344 | 3040.8 | 92.92 | $28,593,885 | $23,244,068 | $8,759,085 |
| | Nov | 9127 | 9127 | 8682 | 7813.8 | 4324 | 3026.8 | 90.85 | $24,328,019 | $21,296,512 | $8,249,543 |
| | Dec | 8585 | 8585 | 8520 | 7668 | 4854 | 3397.8 | 81.61 | $21,187,007 | $19,399,350 | $8,596,128 |
| 2023 | Jan | 8723 | 8723 | 9156 | 8240.4 | 5228 | 3659.6 | 83.9 | $22,146,825 | $21,432,456 | $9,518,254 |
| | feb | 8723 | 8723 | 9156 | 8240.4 | 5228 | 3659.6 | 83.5 | $19,905,886 | $19,266,055 | $8,556,145 |
| | March | 8723 | 8723 | 9156 | 8240.4 | 5228 | 3659.6 | 79.32 | $20,908,333 | $20,262,484 | $8,998,664 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | $165,476,485.91 | $147,898,748.20 | $60,962,015.65 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | Total | $374,337,249.75 |
Operating expanses. Those are fixed expanses.
| Opex | Field | Daily Rate | Net |
| | | | |
| | Jasmine | $303,000 | $303,000 |
| | Nong Yao | $109,200 | $97,200 |
| | Manora | $107,150 | $75,000 |
| | | | |
| | Total per Day | | $475,200 |
| | Total | | $100,742,400 |
Royalties and SRB. The Jasmine field is under Thai ! Regime with Royalties fixed at 12.5% plus uncombent royalties of 4.5% for a total ot 17%. Nong yao and Manora are under the Thai III regime with royalties based on field production. SRB rate is based on profits per meter of wells. Royalties and Capex is deductible, it is difficult to estimate, but I did my best. Note that as infill wells are added, SRB rate goes down.
| Royalties and SRB | | Jasmine | Nong Yao | Manora |
| | | Roy Rate | Amount | Roy Rate | SRB | Amount | Roy Rate | SRB | Amount |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| 2022 | Sept | 17.00% | $4,829,110.24 | 8.00% | 25.36% | $7,205,384.41 | 8.00% | 11.41% | $1,607,959.17 |
| | Oct | 17.00% | $4,860,960.52 | 8.00% | 24.21% | $7,036,193.63 | 8.00% | 12.44% | $1,790,767.56 |
| | Nov | 17.00% | $4,135,763.15 | 8.00% | 21.47% | $5,909,810.08 | 8.00% | 11.22% | $1,585,853.62 |
| | Dec | 17.00% | $3,601,791.25 | 8.00% | 15.70% | $4,353,275.04 | 8.00% | 11.60% | $1,684,522.84 |
| 2023 | Jan | 17.00% | $3,764,960.20 | 8.00% | 20.20% | $5,696,999.60 | 8.00% | 16.40% | $2,322,176.25 |
| | feb | 17.00% | $3,384,000.62 | 8.00% | 19.97% | $5,081,049.30 | 8.00% | 16.16% | $2,067,235.60 |
| | March | 17.00% | $3,554,416.64 | 8.00% | 17.61% | $4,903,171.85 | 8.00% | 13.69% | $1,951,988.71 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Total | | | $28,131,002.60 | | | $40,185,883.91 | | | $13,010,503.76 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | Total | | | $81,327,390.27 |
So Netbacks should be Ard $200M us.
For capex, I used the well costs per valeura estimate for the wassana field at $6.7 M per well.($30M for 5 wells at 89% int). I assume 3 wells at Jasmine at 100% int, and 2 wells at Manora at 70% interest for a total of $30M.
Therefore acrued should be ard $170M US or $230M Cdn, less G&A.