RE:Let the 450 day CR% numbers talk.Great post wildbird1 !
Our efficacy results already beat both of the FDA approved treatments in our space - Keytruda and Adstiladrin - and our efficacy numbers are still improving, so, as many have noted, it's now a question of when, not if we get FDA approval. The trial results cannot be denied.
I believe the reason our efficacy numbers are improving is because as more and more patients are treated, the first 12 underdosed patients become a smaller and smaller proportion of the total patient population. The first 8 patients did not receive any optimized treatment and so had almost no chance of achieving a CR.
So if we want to know where the numbers are heading we should remove the first 8 patients from our calculations, When we do so we can project a
durable complete response of 38% and a
CR at any time of 70%, which blows the competition out of the water.
And considering that patients 9 to 12 only received one optimized treatment and taking into account the fact that at least some of the partial response patients will end up being categorized as CR, our
final durable CR rate will probably be
more than 40% and our
CR at any time around 75%.
| | Keytruda | Adstiladrin | TLD1433 Current | TLD1433 Projected |
| CR at any time | 41% | 51% | 60% | 70% |
| Durable CR | 19% | 24% | 28% | 38% |
wildbird1 wrote: If you want to feel good about your investment in TLT, always recheck the 450 CR% numbers.
2Q2020.......90DayCR% = 25%CR.........450DayCR%.......(No data yet).
1Q2021...............".............= 33.3%CR...............".................(No data yet).
3Q2021...............".............= 42%CR..................".................12%CR
April,2022............".............= 44.7%CR..............."................18.4%CR.
Aug,2022.............".............= 50.7%CR..............."................21%CR.
Nov 2022.............".............= 53%CR.................."................28%CR.
1) The FDA know that as more optimized patients are treated the 450day 28%CR will go up.
2) Big Pharma also know that as more optimized patients are treated the 450day 28%CR will go up.
3) We must keep in mind, that every time the 450day CR% goes up, the $value of a big pharma deal goes up.
In short...Big pharma can't afford to wait too long to engage in a money deal talk with TLT.
4) Many doctors refuse to recommend the use of Keytruda for their patients.
5) The FDA has to find an affordable alternative to Keytruda, or many patients will needlessly die because of a lact of better treatments.
6) The time is ripe for the FDA to consider giving TLT treatment a chance with BTD.
Note: I don't worry about the SP or financing, as we all know that it is the 450dayCR% that will determine TLT future, and the 450dayCR% numbers are getting better and better, and nobody on this board can contradic that fact.
From 12%CR to 28%CR at 450day in approximately 12 months(140% increase).
Ask yourself, with more optimized patients treated, what will be the 450dayCR% in 6 or 12 months, and does the FDA already know the answer to that question?
Understanding that the FDA & Big Pharma are aware that the 450dayCR% numbers are increasing steadily, always give me a good and reassuring feeling about my investment in TLT.