RE:RE:Canadian. Inflation adjusted MOM Retail Growth Confirms US Stop pretending that it's all roses out there.
One of the most important signals that people ignore is that just prior to all recessions, unemployments reaches a low point!!! Unemployment troughs just prior to the recession beginning. This is a fact and it is supported by the Phillips curve in inflationary time periods.
On average, it takes about 8 months from trough unemployment levels for the recession to begin. This occurred in every recessionary period including the 1969 recession when unemployment was as low as 3.4%.
Btw, the unemployment level increased by only 10 basis points (3.5%) when the recession officially began in December 1969. Unemployment reached 6.1% by December 1970 and that was considered a mild recession.
I can see a similar situation unfolding in the current environment. Similar unemployment numbers, high inflation and inverted yield curve to the 1969 recession.