Just a small update.......to my assessment & position in this company. As others have stated, including myself, things are fairly ho hum & quiet on the Pipestone front. Not much to say really, as the company has kept low key and isn't giving much in terms of updates. For my own personal views on the company, the core objectives haven't really changed for me, as i STILL believe it will be acquired by someone in the not to distant future. What has changed though, might be some of the price targets i initially set for the company should some M&A happen. After the Spartan debacle, and SDE taking themselves out of the equation, it has vastly reduced the number of potential suitors.
When i first got "back" into this company, recently, i had quickly stated that it would get taken out and listed the most likely buyers that might be interested in them. The most obvious canadidates being Spartan, Kelt, and Nuvista. Now things have changed somewhat and we must reassess our initial premise. With Spartan taking a different route and breaking up, and Kelt most likely in the process of being acquired themselves, it only leaves a few possibilities on the floor. And ONE which bnot only do i "dread" very much, it could have the strong possbility of actually happening.
So with Spartan & Kelt (Kelt is still a possibility for a merger, BUT that probability has been greatly reduced) out of the way, who's left? Well, with those two "most likely candidates" leaving the scene, we are left with Nuvista as the most obvious one and having the most synergies with Pipestone. Aside from them, HammerHead has now entered the picture, being a publicly traded company now and aslo has strong synergies with the assets of someone like Pipestone. Those two are NOW the most probable buyers for the company. Apart from them, the only other intermediate producer who would have the motivation to do so, would be Vermilion. Why VET? Because they've been looking to diversify away from their international assets and they are the ones they came out of left field to buyout Leucrotta. A small isolated cheap producer in the Montney with little to no debt on their books. Remind you of anyone lol?
IF ANY of those aren't the white knights to come to the rescue and finally end the Pipestone saga, then there's ONE other left who might and who i wish does NOT come into the picture at all. And that of course is Canadian Natural! Why? Well.... for investors that are well versed in this sector and have followed it closely for quite some time, you should KNOW the answer to that question. For the rest of you that are clueless and don't......let's jusy say that you REALLY don't want CNQ to be your savior in a potential buyout from them. Because if it is them, this will be a REPEAT of the PaintedPony debacle of three years ago. And the BIG losers there were the shareholders who had been holding that stock for 5+ years. I won't be onf them, but i'm sure there are many around here. So if CNQ swoops in here at these levels, expect many folks will get the short end of the stick, as i don't expect CNQ to pay ANY premium but they will get Pipe at a considerable discount.
So..... some of you must asking yourselves, why do i believe that there's a strong possbility that CNQ enters the pictture here.....now? Because for one, CNQ has NOT made ANY significant acquisitions in the Canadian O&G space in some time. So just on that fact, they are due to make one soon. Secondly, they ALWAYS buy cheap.....and i mean real CHEAPO. Like they've done with most of their acquisitions, including poor PP. So could it happen here? In the past i would have said NO, absolutely NOT.......because of the marjority owners that were involved, one being GMT. But now? I just don't know, i figure with the massive PULL & influence that CNQ has, it could "technically" sway GMT & the others to let go with some "ecouragement & enticments". and other bonuses.
I think this is a REAL possibility now. So i really do hope that it will be Nuvitsa or Hammerhead, and one them comes in with an offer Pipestone, GMT and the rest of the insiders cannot pass up or refuse. It will be good for them as well as ALL the s/h. With a CNQ offer, it will only be good for one person, one entity..........and y'all know who that is........
GLTA