RE:RE:ATBPrice targets are based on whatever analysts input into their spreadsheets. IOW GIGO is a possiblity.
To get some cover, the target period is well into the future usually 12 mths sometimes 18 mths.
It is hard to predict dilutions or take them into your calculations as companies usually suprise the public and their shareholders.
In the context of dilutions ATMs are of a lower calibre usually implying that no broker was ready to take on a pre-bought deal.