RE:What if...My guess is and we are all guessing, is we will have a very short period of negative
growth but so mild in depth that it will be hardly be noticed. That means that stocks
especially oils willl not sell off much because this recession has been to a great extent, already been discounted or priced in.
I'm more in riski's camp where those who are expecting a big selloff and then trying to
time a bottom type re-entry will not see it. Any correction will be so shallow that it
could be easily missed and that will be the bottom. As many have mentioned, OPEC
will defend their pricing with threats of further cuts and further SPR releases are
becoming dangerous. The massive demand destruction that the Fed and the WH
might want to see will not materialize but sectors of the economy that are interest rate
sensitive such as real estate or any heavily debt burdened companies might feel the
pinch. How the Fed reacts to this will be crucial. My guess is, once they see more
data confirming a slow down, they will have to back off with more rate increases
and even possibly reduce rates again.