Q1 Detective WorkSlide 6 of April presentation has a ton of information if integrated with the Year end info. Here are a few items I was able to estimate. These are estimates by a pur novice... so take them with a grain of salt. I'm just trying to see if my models are close to the what really happened in Q1.
Daily Decline = 0.0238%
Q1 Wells Drilled = 22 (Jan =7.6, Feb = 6.8, Mar = 7.6)
Q1 New Wells Added on Production = 14.2 (Jan = 0, Feb = 7.1 , 7.1)
Exit Production (boe/day) Dec = 12,850, Jan = 12,755, Feb = 14,083, Mar = 15,539
Peak Prod (boe/day) = 15,400
Average Q1 Prod (boe/day) = 13,653 or 5% higher than Q4 2022 production of 12,989
The surprising information that I extrapolated was the following 2 positive deductions:
1) The average well coming on stream had initial production greater than expected. I estimated that the average well production came on at 199 boe/day; 14% higher than expected 175 boe/day
2) Or the decline rate was slower than expected meaning the IP12 is likely to be 128 beo on these new wells.
~ These 2 estimates seem to be outside what I anticipated
22 or 50% of the 44 new wells were drilled in Q1. Peak production in Q1 may of 15,400 boe/day may be higher than the expected during the quarter.
If the company had a bonus new production of 16-24 beo/day/well higher then the expected, then increased cash flow above budgeted in q1 could be $1-1.75 million and would be $5 million in Q2. Hence bank debt is very close to being eliminated in Q2 and could be as low as 6 million... if WTI in Q2 is higher than then strip of $75 by $5.00... then The bank debt will be gone in Q2 which would allow the company to declare the dividend to be reinstated could be anounced as early as the Q2 financial release.