RE:RE:I am so afraid... GoNatgas,
I think issuing more shares, diluting stock, and ultimately reducing SP would be a very last resort, I don't think it's on the radar plan right now. But, it is possible I guess. I could see more divesting of noncore assets long before dilution. They've shown they're not opposed to selling items to move forward their plan (most recently Attachie)
what's AFF going to look like when a capacity to handle 11,000BOE/day going to look like? Especially if condensate is bringing in around $100 or better? Extra $100-150M/yr?
how much debt can crew handle? If it's back up around 300-400M how much would that really impact them? Lots of debt reduction the last two years from lots of the other names, doesn't seem to help, and lots still caring 100's of million and not really impacting others negatively either (just solely talking perceptions within the market) based on stock price history....
On the other hand O & G names issuing NCIB (buybacks) haven't seemed to bring any intrinsic value to their SP either, for those who are doing it, seems same as with the paying down of debt.
Just seems like there's just no love in the sector anymore, and I for one personally am really frustrated with all the green movement EV revolution where, all problems disappear with electric cars, while at the same time, there's no infrastructure to handle it. It's all BS in my opinion. Anyone know GM recalled 140,000 Bolts (battery fires!) there's lots of problems with the EV revolution. It's going to be a real mess if they keep pushing it.
No, have to agree with OldNagger, NG is the bridge fuel for sure, for electrification/heating etc, and maybe even big rig/transport energy (TOU recent announcement) and it will be for several decades in a growing global economy.
Were wars in the Middle East about oil at one point or another? Is this war about NG? I wonder....the US seems to have gained an awful lot in the energy "Transition" especially since they are stealing our gas on the cheap, selling into the larger marker, and, somehow they are controlling us, so we are able to keep supplying them this inexpensive gas.
I think we see love in the sector after most retail customers have been frustrated out of their positions, enough rake overs have happened, and a round of M & A, then a new landscape will appear, a bull multi year cycle, NG trading as a global commodity. Then it moves forward! (By that, I mean, Canadian NG will move up to a new normal of 4-5.00, instead of a $2.00-3.00 normal)
I think we are getting close to this turnaround, I think it aligns with LNG Canada 2024-2025.
in this environment CR will be $12-18
Dale is aligned with us, he has mentioned in interviews about the fact the stock has been in that 18.00-21.00 range a couple times in the past, I'm really sure he's trying to get it there again.
I don't like the 4 year plan risks/wait/market etc, but, I really trust they must have a good plan that will take us skyward. Not too worried right now.....
all JMHO
PonyBoy Outsider