RE:72% CR at any point in time.Not sure if that’s a fair comparison Wildbird. In the swimmer plots the well-responding patients tend to move up while the non-responding (and therefore no longer assessed) patients collect at the bottom. So, cutting off the April23 plot at 43 patients gives you a selection of patients that is more skewed to success than the 43 patients of Nov22. I’d say that the 62% efficacy at any point in time that we are currently reporting for the full batch of 52 (including the 12 undertreated) is already very impressive.
Very impressive too are our current results for duration (Objective 2), defined by Theralase as the “duration of CR at 12 months post initial CR”. I agree with greaterfoolFred elsewhere that the company (likely) calculates this indicator in the wrong way. If I were asked to calculate the likelihood of someone remaining CR at 12 months post initial CR, I would take a different route to arriving at that number. By systematically defining the chances that someone who has achieved CR at 90 days, remains CR at 180/270/360 and eventually at 450 days, I would come to the conclusion that if you are CR at your 90 days assessment, you stand a 63% chance of remaining CR until 450 days. That’s admittedly close to the 67% reported by the company, but calculated in an arithmetically more appropriate way.
For someone starting with the trial the odds are as follows: they have a 54% chance to achieve CR at 90 days (28/52) and, if they have achieved that, 63% chance of remaining CR until 450 days. That means that for a starter the odds of achieving CR at 450 days are 54%x63%= 34% (but mind, that’s not how Objective 2/Duration is defined).
So, based on the data so far, we are talking 62% for Obj. 1, 63% (or 67% if you believe the company's arithmetic to be better) for Obj. 2, and 100% for Obj. 3. If I recall correctly, that’s (almost) exactly what the FDA is hoping to see.
I’m keeping my shares too.