RE:RE:RE:CASHgoldwatch69 wrote: CAPEX deducted ince in many calculations.
20000 bopd at 80 for 9 months, 270 days from now to year end amounts to US$432 million gross revenue assuming all is sold.
Less about US$400 million OPEX and CAPEX from the guidance in the PR leaves US$32 million... but what about royalties? This number is no good.
The royalties and OPEX estimate in January was 49%. So basically half the US$432 million is net to VLE. And then there's SG&A. So about $200 million is left which will be eaten up by CAPEX for the remainder of the year. That leaves the original working capital of US$105 million. With no tax deduction it may look ok. However the $200 million is taxable which basically leaves $100 million plus the $105 million on closing. Basically all cash would be eaten up by CAPEX.
Look at it this way. If they had $105 million left over after 7 months and oil is lower, for the next nine months working capital would be about double with the rest of things remaining equal. Just about all working capital will be spent based on the budget.
This is why I'm on the sidelines for now. $105 million leftover after 7 months implies double after another 7 months with all things remaining equal. However CAPEX budget is almost double the original and oil is down. I don't see much cash left at year end. I think VLE will be lucky to have US$50 million left after tax.
If oil prices improve and VLE gets more oil pumping, it's possible that VLE exists 2023 with US$100 million.
The Q1 capex (34m?) and the 4 months capex of the past year is already included in the 105m wc balance and of course royalties are included. Further included is the tax liability for Q1 and to some extent for Q2.