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Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Alternate Symbol(s):  OBE

Obsidian Energy Ltd. is a Canada-based exploration and production company. The Company operates in one segment, to explore for, develop and hold interests in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin directly and through investments in securities of subsidiaries holding such interests. It has a portfolio of assets producing around 35,700 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. Its operating areas include Cardium, Peace River and Viking areas of Alberta. Its Cardium asset is a fully delineated and de-risked asset. It is focused on manufacturing repeatable low-decline and high-netback light-oil wells across its Cardium land base. The Viking is a light oil, horizontal development play located in central Alberta. Its operations are focused on the Esther area. Peace River is a stable, cold-flow, base production asset. It operates on a contiguous and an acreage within the heart of the Peace River Oilsands region.


TSX:OBE - Post by User

Post by JohnJBondon May 04, 2023 9:21am
240 Views
Post# 35429606

Q1 (Comparables)

Q1 (Comparables)Q1/23 was released this morning.

Lots of numbers - but how do they translate into market value?

Here's how.

FFO per share (diluted) was $1.12.

OBE's share price $8.06 (yesterday's close).

Compare that to two other companies that have just released their Q1.    Lets pick two companies you've probably heard of - Meg Energy, and Surge Energy.

Surge Energy's FFO was $0.64, and their share price is $7.97.    ie, Surge's FFO is about half that OBE's and their share price is about the same.

How about Meg?

Meg Energy's FFO was $1.19, and their share price is $20.38.    ie Meg's FFO is about the same as OBE's, and their share price is about 2.5X more.

That is why I'm holding OBE shares, and not Surge or Meg.

With OBE you get about double the cash flow for the same share price investment.

It doesn't stop there.

Look at Whitecap Resources.

They had FFO of $0.73 and their share price is $9.86.     Same thing as above - Whitecap's shares are priced at about double OBE on a FFO to FFO basis.

Why pay double for a $1 in FFO, when you can get it for half price?

What does this mean?

In short, it means you can pay $1 for a can of Coke, or $2 for a can of Coke.   That sort of price differential doesn't usually last.    It typically only happens when those who pay $2, don't know about the $1 option.    (it also means the $1 Can of Coke is likely to hold its value or appreciate)

I'll give my thoughts on Q1/23 later in the day after I've reflected on them (first impression is I'm happy)
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