My take COP's CC & SurmontFirst off, after those two questions were given, along with the proceeding replies to those questions, my stance HAS NOT changed in regards to COP's future intentions with Surmont. So let's get that out of the way quick. In addition, after reading all the comments & opinions of those who have made their views known on this forum with this topic, in the end, i agree more with Obscure's assessment of the situation. I think Obscure comments has pretty much fleshed out the situation and what COP's REAL intent is with the Surmont project, as well as what they will probably do in the future. So for all intents & purposes, Obscure's views more or less mirror my own with regards to COP's motives, intentions & objectives.
What i think most folks here have missed and haven't picked up, is what the real intentions are behind the scenes, when the spotlights & microphones are turned off. And Obscure has noticed & allude to this as well. What you guys have to understand is that these COP guys are BIG OIL Texas BUSINESSMEN. These guys are real pro's and are VERY good at what they do, both on the oil field AND off it during CC like tthis. So they have to talk up a good game on ALL theirs wares, it what they do, it's in their nature. IF their intention is to EXIT Surmont at some point in the future, AND exit with a fantastic deal they would be happy with, they are not going to talk down & pee on their on assets. These guys would talk up and sell their own grandma's if the situation required it or try to sell you a total lemon like a Ford Pinto at M-Benz price levels id needed. And they would talk up a good game by listing all the benefits why their grandma OR the Pinto is a great deal by pointing to all the flashy buttons, fancy levers and shinny mattefinish. Do you guys get it?
So in the end, i do not think WE KNOW the real intentions based on those short, vague comments, and folks should not put too much emphasis on what was said. Sure Surmont is low cost intensive, sure it's a great source of cash flow and all the rest of the financial & technical aspects. All that, most are already aware of those facts but what we don't know are the intangibles or grey areas. Stuff like whats their take or where do they lean on things like ESG, carbon emssions and alot of other political hot potatoes. IF they lean on being pro & tough on ESG mandates and they're intent on reducing their carbon footprint, within certain objectives they've set, how are they going to do that IF the excercise their ROfR on Surmont? And are they ready to accept the blacklash back home? Because even though it might NOT be a big deal in Canada, it could possibly create some serious issues for them in other places.
So my take, don't put too much emphasis on what was said and try to deduce anything from those vague comments. I think the ony thing that is possible here, if we have to base something that's "likely" on those replies, is that COP is not willing to sell now and not willing to sell cheap. I personally don't beleive they will excercise their ROfR on Srumont and they will the deal between Total & Suncor go through, as is, uninterupted & unobstructed with absolutely no intereference of their part. At the same time, welcoming their NEW partner (and possible willing buyer of their share lol) into fray with opne arms. And if this the case and IF i'm reading this wrong, then i would have to back to the drawing board to see what i missed or where i went wrong.
I think if MAYBE Sleepy Crazy Joe did not approve COP's Willow expansion in Alaska, Conoco's objectives & intentions for Sumont could of been totally different. BUT now that they got the green light, on a humonguos project like that, without the added headaches or unwanted baggage that a project like Surmont brings to table, it's a pretty easy call to make imo. So i would be VERY surprised to see COP acquire the remaining 50% ......in the end. But don't think they will even if they excercise at first, because if Suncor did not get a feeler out before they announced and they went in totally blind (buck naked!!!!), hoping for the best, then COP will have them by the liteal ballz and will make them pay through the nose.....which of course is in their BEST interest IF they intend to GTFO as well.
That's MY take.............. and sorry for any grammtical mistakes, errors or mishaps. My brain works faster than my hands and i usually don't proof read 100%....due to time....so my apologies 8).
GLTA