If it's not one thing, it's your MotherMy Mom, bless her soul, had a good sense of humour. She once gave me a set of cocktail napkins that said "If it's not one thing it's your Mother"
I tried to learn about oil over the past couple of years. Ultimately, the main thing that I learned about oil is that "If it's not one thing, it's you Mother."
Here's a quick (not comprehensive list of factors that have affected oil in a BIG way over the last couple of years:
Covid and the senseless shutdown of the world
SPR drains.
Ukraine war.
Russia's many ways to circumvent embargoes
China/Taiwan
China economic meltdown (or is it? nobody will ever know)
Exploding interest rates
And that is just a list of some of the major events. Beyond that are the myriad of events (weather, geopolitical, etc) that move oil prices like a yo-yo
Worst of all from I can tell is that oil price moves have a lot more to do with paper manipulation as opposed to physical oil. The actions of professional oil traders massively overwhelm the performance of any given company when it comes to the company's share price. UGH
Bottom line????
Nobody has a clue wtf is going to happen with oil prices in the short or even the medium term.
In the long term, the world is not going to stop using oil completely. However oil accounts for 60% of all energy use (transportation and power grid) and that number is heading much lower much faster than any Suncor shareholder is willing to admit.
Unless you are an incredibly well informed and skilled oil trader, the oil industry is not going to treat you well going forward.