RE:If it's not one thing, it's your MotherObscure, some of the points you make on "factors that are affecting price of Oil" can be applied to most sectors.
You mention Ukraine specifically, how about the export of wheat?
A good business for them, they were #5 in world before the invasion.
"Exploding interest rates" affect most businesses, just look at recent banking meltdown.
Are you implying that only energy companies borrow money?
As for the SPR drawdowns, I see that as a positive.
At some point, Sleepy Joe needs to replace the 185M bbls he has drawn (to keep prices down).
Its called "strategic reserve" for good reason.
That stockpile is designed as insurance for the nations one month supply of oil (30 days x 20M b/d = 600M bbls) in times of emergency only! (like if the country is attacked or you need to go fight a war somewhere).
What do you think military equipmenmt (like tanks) run on, batteries?
Finally its all about supply & demand they say.
The EIA forecasts world oil consumption at 100M b/d for 2023 & 102M b/d for 2024.
When that forecasts begins to decline, dont you think global energy companies will just produce less product (natural decline & under investment notwithstanding).
One big giant OPEC if you will.
Energy companies are paying off debt as main priority (especially the majors).
They all seem to have the same game plan.
In future years, as they drop capex and maintain a functional oil price through reduced production and no new investments, even more FCF will flow into shareholders pockets.
Perhaps the SU divi will be $2 per QTR by then.