Will Biden replace the SPR?Good questions Matt. Of course, many of the factors affect the entire market as you suggested. However, different industry groups and even different companies have different betas. The oil industry has a beta of 3.36 which is wicked high which means investing in any oil company is going to be a roller coaster ride.
In regards to replacing the SPR, one has to ask "who has the power" to control oil prices?
Biden (the USA) lost the power for awhile and that is when we saw oil jump up to $120. When MBS embarassed Biden on an international scale, apparently the White House went nuts. It appears that The White House said enough is enough. As the world realized that the Russian military is an antiquated paper tiger, the price of oil has dropped $50 per barrel. Why do you think that happened. I think that the guys with the biggest guns make the rules.
If Biden wants to replenish the SPR at $65, I think he will be able to do so.
However, I'm not sure Biden wants to replace the SPR at all. What if Biden's advisors have done the math (lots of smart people around with calculators) and have decided that with the rapid move to renewable eneregy backed by Biden's administration, there is no need to replace the SPR?
The USA was a net exporter of 1.26 million barrels per day of petroleum products in 2022 so it is not like the USA is dependent upon other countries (well, other than Canada but they don't count).
I think the USA will be able to replace that SPR at whatever price it wants, when it wants.
However, I think the more relevant question is:
"Does the USA want or need to replace the SPR???? I dunno as it above my pay grade.