RE:RE:RE:RE:If it's not one thing, it's your MotherGood points and a good question Matt...
I am not necessarly a fan of EVs ( I am just being a pragmatic investor and looking at the world through as clear a set of glasses as I can). I mentioned in a post a while back, that over the years when we have gone through transformative times, it is a safer investment not to try to pick the winners such as in this case which EV maker will win or be the best but rather invest in companies that supply that industry cause they win no matter which of the primary companies win. As well, when a transformation is going on, especially if Government is involved, it is profitable to invest in companies which have solutions to the likely problems that emerge. You mentioned some of the problems in your post. In past posts I have recommended that people look at electricity producers (most are big companies) since they will have a growing demand for their product. I have also recommended that people look for companies that have solutions to problems you identified such as grid problems etc. In a similar vein there are other companies using green technologies where they are their own customers which significantly reduces the risk (in this vein I talked about WM but the same point applies to other big waste management companies around the world). WM expects to double its FCF in 3 years with a 1 billion dollar investment - can the same be said for SU?
So there are lots of potential investments out there that do not necessarily entail a lot of risk but have a growth path far superior to what we can expect from SU.
As for staying invested in SU, I guess some of it depends on your time frame. If you plan to leave your shares to your grandchildren, frankly I would be skeptical about holding SU that long. If your timeframe is say 5 years or less then you may well be OK but as I have said many times, I found going with the flow is easier money than investing in an industry where its moat has been breached.
Right now I own SU shares because IMO, oil is mispriced and I see an opportunity to make some money in a short period of time and then I will get out. If I see a misprice again I do the same thing.
But hey...each to their own!!