RE:Guaranteed minimums:So what's it going to be? A Q1 and Q2 revenue surge like last year reflecting an attempt to gain production/shipping efficiencies or a return to the quarterly revenue distribution prior to COVID as supply chains normalize? We could get the answer next week!
prophetoffactz wrote: With the new Symrise deal with guarenteed minimums CZO could have the confidence to do a monster production run to gain production efficiency. In Q4 2022 CZO produced enough of its flagship, high margin avenanthramide for the whole of 2023 and going into 2024 Gilles said. He was very proud of the production team and achievement. Inventories are up 61% vs. last year; though in part on accounting methodology. This is a historic inventory build ahead of a new year. Maybe Symrise also ships larger orders under this new deal to gain shipping efficiencies. It will be interesting to see Q1 and Q2 this year vs. last; maybe the revenue concentration in Q1 and Q2 last year speaks to better production and shipping planning under the new agreement and we are about to see two very strong quarters in a row again. Using the superficial analysis of WolfOfOakville as a benchmark the current stock price may reflect deep concern about three quarters of declining sales in a row, lower sales in Q4 22 vs. Q4 21, and the low margins in Q4. CZO shipped a lot more low margin oat oil in Q4. With the new accounting year and guarenteed minimums in the Symrise deal as well as better production/distribution planning under the new deal there may be a big surprise ahead as things reverse. The declining revenue for the last three quarters and low Q4 margin may reflect better overall production/shipping planning under the new Symrise deal and not a weaker company as many here on this board try to suggest. Annual revenue growth was in line with the historic trend in 2022. It was another record year. In the TSX-V video Gilles anticipated another record year in 2023 for the Symrise deal. Again, avenanthramide is CZO's highest margin product.
If we do get two strong quarters in a row with the fibrosis clinical trial decision in the summer and more information on the avenanthramide trial the current share price weakness may be a bargain.