RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:EIA Crude build +3m, Gasoline -3.2m, Dist -4.2m A lot of the non farm payroll is simply the same person having to add a second or third job just to continue to pay the bills. It's not unique individual job creation that headline media makes you believe.
What type of jobs are being created? Full time or part time?
I can tell you for sure it's not full time jobs.
Layoffs rising can be a leading indicator of the strength of the jobs market. Total quits and job vacancies are coming down which is telling me that workers are content with their pay and that wage inflation may be moderating.
I like to follow what's happening in the residential construction side for clues. Construction employment has already peaked and building permits/housing starts are at least 20% lower than current construction completions. Expect construction layoffs to be a trend in the second half of the year. This is reminiscent of mid 2007.