RE:Some factsEasy Gabriel. Lets not go applying a WSP multiple to SNC just yet. WSP is guiding to a midpoint EBITDA margin of 17.5% for 2023. SNC is guiding to 10% - 12% (8% - 10% EBIT margin). Until SNC proves they can execute consistently i put around a 10x multiple on it (~$39/share for SNCL Services).
Net recourse debt of ~$1 Bln, $400mm of lease liabilities and remaining fines of $120mm. I get an equity value for SNCL Services of $30.50.
Concessions around $12/share.
So lets call it $42.50 as an upside target in the medium term until they show an ability to execute. The multiple can expand if we get a more risk on environment or start to close the margin gap with peers.
Personally, I think if WSP wants to become a dominant global player, as they seem to want to be, they should buy SNC. Of course they should wait until the LSTK projects are 100% complete so as to not negatively affect their stock price. They could pay a premium and still have it be immediately accretive. This would give them the Nuclear division which would be a nice addition to their business. Lots of synergies, overlapping shareholders. 2024 maybe.