RE:RE:What's Next?Right. And even if we are not allowed to remove the 12 undertreated, the results will still be by far the best out there.
If we assume an (at least) 40% durable CR rate for the first half of the trial (52 patients) including the 12 undertreated, this will mean 21 of the first 52 patients were CR.
If we further assume that none of the 12 undertreated attained a durable CR then the percentage of CRs we can expect in the second half of the trial should be 21 out of 40, (52.5%) not 21 out of 52 (40%)
52.5% of 52 patients = 27 patients
An estimate of the final results of the trial would be 21 patients from the first half plus 27 patients from the second half = 48 out of 104 patients.
A durable complete response rate of 46% And this just assumes that the trial continues to go the way it has been going so far and the FDA does not give us a break by excluding the first 12 patients.
If we
are allowed to remove the 12 undertreated my estimate of
52.5% actual durable efficacy is equivalent to enriquesuave's
50%-55% durable complete response rate Future conversions of IR patients to CR and treatment tweaking will also help increase the CR rates.
These numbers have been posted by Theralase for everyone to see. I have to agree with Galaxym31 that it's a mystery why the share price is not skyrocketing with massive volume.
enriquesuave wrote: Eoganacht wrote: Given the stability of CRs after the 180 day assessment, and taking into account only patients who were CR at both their 90 day and 180 day assessments I think we can be confident that:
90 days from now we should be at a 450 day CR rate of 31%
(12 out of 39 should be CR)
180 days from now we should be at a 450 day CR rate of 34%
(14 out of 41 should be CR)
270 days from now we should be at a 450 day CR rate of 40% (19 out of 47 should be CR)
Stellar results. And this includes the 12 undertreated patients.
Nice Eoganacht. Without 12 undertreated patients we would may e be looking at 50-55% 450 CR rate Imo. With only 2 treatments. I can imagine that NR and IR patients will eventually be given 3-4 treatments and perhaps we get another 10-20 % increase in CR rate perhaps?