100% !?!? Oh my !!! Did Paradigm just go from 75% to 100% Probability of Success ( I.e. assumption of FDA approval) in their latest analysis ?
A done deal?
finito?
fait accompli?
Our $ 1.60 rNPV (was $ 1.70) assumes a 100% probability of success in the trial given…and results to date that are exceeding expectations. Therefore, the $ .26 current share price suggests that the market is only giving the trial a 16% probability of success. Published industry averages have the probability for a Phase 3 trial at ~63% , or $ 1.00/sh. This increases to 77% for trials that use a biomarker for patient selection, or $ 1.23/sh. Therefore, we believe that maket is excessively discounting the potential for success in this Phase 3b trial.
Just wait until this gets distributed to the thousands of Paradigm clients eager to participate in the next late Phase 3 Trial Biotech ! Not to mention thousands of potential US investors as well !
MM