Sentiment: Negative
TD’s adjusted EPS was $1.94, in line with our estimate of $1.95 but below consensus of $2.06.
Total provisions for credit losses (PCLs) were $559 million, below our forecast of $792 million and the consensus estimate of $735million. The bank had performing PCLs of $48 million (down ~-65% QoQ), below our estimate of $129 million and consensus of $139 million. PCLs on stage 3 (impaired) loans decreased -0.4% QoQ to $551 million, also lower than our estimate of $663 million. The lower PCL helped offset the weaker-than-anticipated PPPT.
Pre-provision, pre-tax earnings (PPPT) on a teb basis came in at $5,082 million, below our estimate of $5,355 million and consensus of $5,368 million.
Adjusted total revenues of $11,735 million (down ~-3% QoQ but up ~12% YoY) were below our $12,161 million forecast, with both net interest income (NII) and non-interest income below our forecasts. TD's core NII was down ~-4% QoQ at $7,365 million, compared to our estimate of $7,248 million. We calculate that TD's core net interest margin (NIM) decreased -2 bps QoQ to 1.92%, compared to our forecast of 1.88%.
Adjusted non-interest expenses of $6,693 million (up ~2% QoQ) were below our $6,863 million estimate. TD’s efficiency ratio (based on our calculations) was 57.0% (up 310 bps QoQ), higher than our forecast of 56.4%.
The bank's reported CET 1 ratio was 15.3% (down -20 bps QoQ), close to our estimate of 15.2%. Risk-weighted assets increased ~3% QoQ to $549.4 billion, compared to our estimated ~5% QoQ increase to $555.6 billion. Basel III reforms had a 2 bps positive impact on the CET 1 ratio this quarter. The mitigation of the impact from interest rate volatility to closing capital on First Horizon had a -2 bps negative impact on the ratio. TD shut off the discount on its DRIP and announced a NCIB to repurchase up to 30 million shares.
Wholesale Banking earnings were $213 million (down ~-39% QoQ and ~-41% YoY), lower than our estimate of $357 million. Lower- than-expected results were driven by lower-than-expected revenues of $1,417 million, versus our forecast of $1,631 million.
U.S. P&C earnings of $1,278 million (down ~-7% QoQ but up ~31% YoY) were above our forecast of $1,245 million. NIMs in this segment were also down -4 bps QoQ to 3.25%. All acquisition-related activities which were previously entered into with First Horizon are being wound down. Reported expenses in the segment were up ~17% YoY which included acquisition and integration related costs for the First Horizon deal.
Overall, we have a neutral to mildly negative view on Q2/23 results, as adjusted EPS was below our forecast and consensus.
Lower PCLs are generally “ok”, but we suspect they will rise in future quarters. NIM outlook and loan growth will all be of interest for TD as will the future strategic direction of its U.S. business.
The company will be hosting a conference call today at 1:30 PM ET. The dial-in numbers are 1-866-696-5894 or 416-641-6150, passcode 2727354#.