Nuttall's CommentsAs can be seen, Nuttall's sole focus right now is Canadian heavy oil and he doesn't like NG. His comments about TOU were very similar to ARX. His positioning now is 92% focused on Canada in his main fund. The only names you want are Canadian heavy oil, as we're getting a decades-worth of free cashflow, deeply discounted but differential could really narrow, Trans Mountain expansion adding capacity. Much longer inventory depth than US peers, and much lower decline rates. This means that US names need to spend more money than Canadian names to sustain production. For capital appreciation, focus on this theme. WAIT Arc Resources Ltd(ARX-T)
31/05/2023
Ultra-high-quality assets. Heavy on natural gas. On free cashflow, not as compelling as other names. He can do better with a Canadian, large-cap oily name. No buy thesis. Not a lot of downside, but not a lot of upside. Not time to buy the lows on natural gas just yet.
Oil / Gas
Eric Nuttall
$16.420
No
WAIT
Tourmaline Oil Corp(TOU-T)
31/05/2023
Don't buy now if you're looking for capital appreciation. It's discounting nat gas price meaningfully higher than current price, as it should because current price is not sustainable. Nat gas inventories are high and supply will grow this year. LNG capacity buildout is a catalyst for 2024/25, not for now.
Incredibly well run, great assets. He'd take a look around $45.
Oil / Gas
Eric Nuttall
$57.515