RE:Q1, Q2 and beyondRead the original post below from ROUGE10, not the pollution from the fully baked and mental troll.
Conclusion:
Air Canada is back. 2023 will be a record revenue and EBITDA year, even with some sort of recession in Q4. By data, we are already in freight/product recession with transportation industry reeling in low volume and consumer product companies facing lower demand. Travel industry is attracting all that spending. 2024 could be normalization year but by then AC will be back to 100% (of 2019) with better business model, allowing it for better results.
As long as fuel price stays stable, expect $4B EBITDA this year. Leverage ratio of <1.25 and net debt of <$5.0B. This will be best leverage ratio in industry, definitely in North America and possible amongst the top globally. No share buy backs (confirmed by management) this year and all the cash be used for deleveraging and buying new planes with cash.
Only few weeks left for Q2 to finish. Q2 results will set the tone for Air Canada. It will be best Q2 on record with only ~90% capacity of 2019. And Q3 will follow the same course .