RE:So the real question is...pooltec wrote: Can you paper control the price of oil to disregard the law of supply and demand?
Easy with silver and gold since not really consumed. Oil is consumed. If you loose your day job due to a recession do you get 2 part time jobs to pay your bills and drive even more since you work at 2 places now? Lots of jobs out there still. Quebec unemployment 1.7% Damm does anyone even clean toilets out there?
some people don't understand that fuel demand is near inelastic, just behind medicine, drugs, booze and prostitution. I read some where inelasticity of fuel is ranked ahead of food. Why? because gasoline/diesel is still cheaper than food as fuel. However, many elastic consumer products contain plastic made from oil which makes crude oil consumption not 100% inelastic
Sure, they will be some curtailment of oil consumption during a recession but that's where OPEC's production cut should stabilize prices. Last check, oil consumption is still on the up trend
World oil consumption In million bo/day
December 31, 2021 94.09M
December 31, 2020 88.75M
December 31, 2019 97.75M
December 31, 2018 97.49M
December 31, 2017 95.92M
December 31, 2016 94.17M
December 31, 2015 92.46M
December 31, 2014 90.59M
December 31, 2013 89.90M
December 31, 2012 88.55M
December 31, 2011 87.43M
December 31, 2010 86.55M
December 31, 2009 83.64M
December 31, 2008 84.82M
December 31, 2007 85.78M
December 31, 2006 84.61M
December 31, 2005 83.65M
December 31, 2004 82.72M
December 31, 2003 79.89M
December 31, 2002 78.21M
December 31, 2001 77.37M
December 31, 2000 76.50M
December 31, 1999 75.70M
December 31, 1998 74.19M
December 31, 1997 73.77M
December 31, 1996 71.73M
December 31, 1995 70.09M
December 31, 1994 69.33M
December 31, 1993 67.62M
December 31, 1992 67.88M
December 31, 1991 66.86M
December 31, 1990 66.74M
December 31, 1989 65.60M
December 31, 1988 64.27M
December 31, 1987 62.29M
December 31, 1986 60.99M
December 31, 1985 59.25M
December 31, 1984 58.86M
December 31, 1983 57.59M
December 31, 1982 57.81M
December 31, 1981 59.40M
December 31, 1980 61.23M
December 31, 1979 63.86M
December 31, 1978 62.73M
December 31, 1977 59.89M
December 31, 1976 57.69M
December 31, 1975 54.33M
December 31, 1974 54.79M
December 31, 1973 55.56M
December 31, 1972
51.42M
World Oil Consumption (ycharts.com)
would EVs stamp out oil demand if we do have a recession? who could afford to upgrade their ICE to EV in a recession. Most people would just keep their ICE beaters and pay the lower petro price during a recession. Of cause, politics and ESG can skew the automobile scene, this would not be a natural transition to EV but a coerced one.