RE:RE:RE:RE:Saudi oil product cut impact has been minimal Low unemployment is a harbinger that a recession is just around the corner. Every recession begins shortly after unemployment troughs. It's interesting to note that Nber peaks and unemployment troughs have a shorter lead time measured in months (about 8 months) then an inverted yield curve (about 10 months) for predicting the start of a recession. In 1969, a recession was declared in December of that year when the unemployment rate was just 3.5% !!! 12 months later the unemployment rate reached 6.1% which means the Nber does not need to see much higher unemployment rates to declare a recession. I believe it has started already or very close to it.