Here is the big boy pants question. Irrespective of whether the cascandra reserves play out, as long as the first well comes on as expected, we should at the very least have no downside risk from buying at current levels, and can assume a quick 30% bump up in shareprice upon announcement. HOWEVER if the well doesn't perform as expected we face complete disaster.SO THE BIG MONEY QUESTION AND DISCUSSION should be is how much can the discovery well test results be relied upon to translate into a successful development well. i.e given the impressive flow rate, pressure and all the other favorable metrics of the exploratoin well, is the first development well 90% plus chance of performing as expected. What are the risks here? Have there been cases of failed results after extensive testing of the discovery well. It seems the risk reward here is extremely favorable, but I would like to guage the downside risk.
Any wise input, especially from the technically savy would be greatly appreciated.
-Long time shareholder looking to add.