RE:RE:RE:RE:Quote of the day (this one is for Sooner)Hi Sooner, here are some figures to mull over.......
Agreed that you can't take current spot (high or low end) as markets fluctuate daily. But, if we are in an environment of say $2,200 gold, parties might split the difference between a base case of $1,800 and $2,200 and call it an even $2k. Hey, that is basically the price that Paul was using for his $5 billion NPV the other day. Yes, you have to convert to USD, so let's call it about $4 billion.
You say 40% NPV is in the normal range, I believe we need 50%, again, let's split the difference and call it 45%. 45% of 4 billion is $1.8 billion. Divide that amount by the non-RIO shares and you get $11.46 USD a share. You'd probably get even the most diehard amongst us to seriously consider that amount, which is well within a reasonable negotiating range.
Just math, that's all. Same thing when the parties get down to it and iron out a deal. RIO will not get their $6 lowball and we won't get our pie-in-the-sky $20+ (assuming no bidding war).
I'm totally fine with double-digits in the absence of a bidding war assuming Paul has coaxed one in the correct environment. But, many of us believe there will ultimately be a biddiing war, it is Paul's job to start one at some point in the future!!