RE:We here dont really know"We know that OIL/GAS will continue to rise over the next 12 months."
"Rise" is a matter of perspective, and might OR might not be meaningful for these companies, Peyto included. Would a "rise" from $2.25 to $2.75 be significant for Peyto? Probably not but it could help somewhat. Besides i doubt VERY much we get any "substantial" rise in enrgy prices anytime soon UNLESS there's a blackswan event or catastophe. Energy prices, especially NG will be kept low, artifically by the powers that be, so NOT to BK the EU.
"Also 90% of Oil/Gas stock have or work with debt."
Yes the majority of them do. But not many heavily NG weighted producers, or that many producers of Peyto's stature in genereal have almost $1B in debt on thier books. Which by any standard is an enormous amount of debt to service no matter WHO you are. As an example, take a look at Birchcliff, who had almost an identical amount of debt comparable to Peyto's, which they subsequently reitred the majority of it in less than 3 years. The difference here is that Birchcliff didn't have to or does not have to pay a generous divvy ontop of that.
"We aalso know that Peyto DIV is protected for the next 6 months.'
That's NOT guatantee and is completely debatable. And i'm guessing all that hoopla & drama surrounding the dubious trading recently is most likely the result of struggles & internal conflicts among the insiders. It might have something to do with the "issue" of whether or not to continue paying that "generous" divvy as is or maybe reduce it to allevaite some financial pressures & liquidity issues on Peyto. Among MANY other things. That's my best guess......ontop of what i already stated in my post.
GLTA