RE:RE:RE:Peak-Oil Supply - on the Horizon...Lost Oceanex in that massacre...opportunistic buy ...smart bid from Captain & private interests...great business shipping between Montreal, Halifax & St John's.....paid more than massacre crash price but less than I though it was worth...essentially a monopoly in Atlantic Canada trade route.
Held it for about 2 years or so if I remember it right
malx1 wrote: nukester wrote: Interesting article.
Peak oil has been the centerpiece of my investment paradigm for nearly twenty years.
I think I got to the party a bit early :-)
Seriously though, the topic is worthy of much consideration.
IMO global oil supply will decline faster than global demand.
Long term (10 -20 years) it is a no brainer, oil will become much more valuable.
Short term is different. The U.S. and China both have meaningful storage.
In reality, stranded Canadian oil is actually US strategic supply.
So short term, the US and China can dump oil on the market to effect prices.
One extra marginal barrrel of supply goes a long way towards lower prices.
Not to mention the paper barrels / futures that dwarf the physical market.
Amazing how long the paper barrels can control the price, simply fascinating.
Oddly enough, we hear very little about increasing Venezeulan crude, they have serious reserves (heavy sour, the US needs) that can be brought online over time at great expense.
Conclusion,
The demise of oil has been greatly exaggerated by green energy advocates and power hungry politicians. Invest wisely, long term, but play short term trends around elections and other news cycle items like saudi oil production cuts. Also, get some natural gas exposure. Nat gas producer Inflation has helped establish a bottom in pricing IMO. Increasing LNG exports (in US and Canada) will help stabilize north american nat gas prices over time.
Almost forgot:
Nat gas transportation (Pipeline) is a significant expense to nat gas producers.
What if somebody decided to build a nat gas fired powerplant in the middle of a nat gas basin to produce electricity. Results would be decreased nat gas transportation costs for the producer. Now just for kicks, imagine this same nat gas company priced the nat gas supply to the same power plant based on Alberta power pool pricing. The higher the Alberta power pool pricing, the higher the nat gas price realized by the nat gas producer. Think of summer heat waves as something that swells your bank account, not just your electric bill :-)
Long suffering oil bug myself.
Was too fixated on 'reserves in the ground' and how oil was valued in public markets. Owned all the
wrong companies back in early 2000's:
PETROCHINA CO PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA CNOOC LIMITED
Had yet to figure out what Political Risk was.
Canada taught me that lesson with the Famous Halloween Massacre Announcement: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/halloween_massacre.asp Political RISK, really stepped in it that Halloween 2006.