RE:In the 6’th Month.Devanand1, I have no idea of how to value this company so I'm just assuming that the "efficient market hypothesis" applies in that all information to date has already been baked into the sp. This includes the probability of cgx having to give up more working interest.
I'm being "Mr. Obvious" here: So we're dealing with probabilities. The probability of commercial discovery ranging from dry hole to "gusher". But we already know that they found oil. The question is how much? We're also dealing with the probability that cgx will find the money without having to give up more working interest or dilute shares.
It's interesting reading the comments on this board. Some are discounting the stock because they have little confidence in management. Others support management because they see management as protecting Guyanese vested interests and what's good for the vested interests is good for fec and minority shareholders. Both argue a solid case in my opinion.
So applying the efficient market hypothesis, the current sp and volume reflect the average of current valuations and interest. My question is: what would it take to skew the average to the upside? What would trigger a huge volume of bid interest? A JV announcement would do that. How likely is a JV announcement in, say, the next 3 months? I personally have no idea.