RE:KavernThe minute Russia rolled tanks into Ukraine in 2022 things became much different. Even if Russia didnt go into Ukraine in 2022, oil was always going to benefit from covid ending and reopening happening and the delay in oil production rising to meet that. Covid was a complex thing to oil markets.
Spiking oil to 115 dollars last June due to these two black swan events wasnt a good reason to be in the market.
I stopped my trading strategy as I didnt think I would be smart enough to sell at the peak. I just knew that over time oil would make its slow descent to under 65 dollars to get supply to slow down. OPEC cut starting last Nov just delayed the inevitable of oil hitting under 65 dollars.
look at the past, whever oil hit over 100 it eventually goes down below 50. Too much production gets stimulated.
I think oil prices over time here we will get similar to 2015-2019 period...50-70 dollar range. Thats the time to do the volitle trading strategy.
I want oil to trade below 65 dollars before I touch any energy stock.
The time to be buying energy stocks is when the market is so despressed and nobody wants them. We are not there yet.
I have eased up on risk taking and no poker anymore. I am focused on one more hard run of energy stock trading but not yet.