RE:Yearly low today.... Lol. Well if I bought more BNE it would definitely be averaging down! Usually a loser move for me although it worked out veryvwell in 2020 and 2021.
will buy a little BNE in some accounts. I plan on adding some Baytex, TVE and maybe some HWX. There are hardly any new public companies so the pool is pretty shallow.
I have a few special situation companies that don't trade on market sentiment as much. Tenaz being my biggest position.
My thesis on baytex is that it will start recovering since the takeover is now closed. These long closings kill the share price regardless of their Merit due to the long info vacuum. I am betting that it will move up a little like WCP did after their last buy - ncib will start sucking up the cheap stock and mgt will hit the dog and pony circuit. Though WCP had far more credibility and bought a better asset. Baytex could get a serious re-rate if they add more American investors. Lots of torque if they can execute. Worked for Enerplus and Ovintiv on some level.
TVE added great core properties. All the deals were accretive. Too much stock was issued in a short time frame so I think they are mispriced, but They are hitting their stride now. Bet they sell off their Cardium properties soon. A little yield now as it is over 5%
Finally Headwater must be getting close to a transaction or another growth inflection. Yield 6.5% last I looked. 155 million in cash on the balance sheet. They can't spend their money fast enough.
For the above 3 wcs diffs have shrunk, all have lots of heavy oil, costs in their core plays are all very low and I think heavy oil is going to benefit more from TMX line fill. Balance sheets are decent with three different debt levels depending on how much leverage you want.
At some point I think Baytex or TVE look at Obsidian. Heavy oil at seal and clearwater and lots of pretty decent Viking land would be a good fit. They can also sell the different Cardium positions for parts and max out the return. Probably 20 different bidders available for bite size pieces.
Still say Yangarra should be picking up legacy Cardium land with high ARO. Should be a bargain and they do the reclamation in house cheaply anyway. Win, win.