RE:RE:RE:RE:Rig counts continue to drop, Shale growth stallsThe rally in Nasdaq and SP500 is led by a mere handful of stocks.
Many traders on my oil trading board are waiting to pounce hard when it trips up, and I have also been trading the current upwards momentum with tight stops until it turns. Then it will likely be a quick and deep drop. The feelings are so similar to the times right before the dot com crash, the housing bubble crash, and the Covid crash.
Oils will likely get hit, but keep in mind a lot of that is priced in already, with supply demand fundamentals poised to take a bite out of inventories. Our Canadian oil companies are doing just fine with $70 oil, yet they trade like it is $50.
At the moment, I am being nimble, but holding long core oil stocks as they are so undervalued, and prepared to take large positions in SQQQ, the triple leveraged bear on Nasdaq for the collapse. It is extremely liquid to trade.
The stock market is always 'Up the stairs, and out the window.'
Indeed the labour markets are still strong for now, perhaps delaying a big pullback. Will see what disappointing SP500 Q2 earnings will do to the markets.
matt2018 wrote: Agree experienced, very conflicting signals as you put it. The Nasdaq which got hit the hardest, is coming back the strongest. Many of those listed companies are some of the heaviest borrowers.
S&P also showing incredible resilience. While a market pullback is inevitable, there seems to be a widening of the disconnect between Wall St vs. Main St.
Wall St is behaving like rates increases are done (or very close to it), inflation is going to keep trending lower and the "soft landing" in the economy is in play.
Main St view seems to be, even though there is basically full employment, wages have not kept pace and it's a struggle to pay the bills.
Perhaps Oil producers are best to manage their businesses with mid $70's pricing environment and hang on to demand they have.
Maybe why the layoffs at Suncor. The need to be leaner.